Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 7-2-0
56%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
4.6
Surp
4.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew White (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Scherer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Martinez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Devin McAtee (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
Round 8: Win vs Cavin Saravanan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
23rd • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Madelyn Machado (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Win vs Brandon Ejupi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
31st • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Pritchard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Win vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jason Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Round 8: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
35th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arjun Garg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Win vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dennis Guinn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Evan Zumwalt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luke Shields (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 78:22
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Duda (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rick Folks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Millar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rick Folks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Ackley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Devin McAtee (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Brower (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Martin Bantchev (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Trent Lewis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.