Kassai of the Golden Sand at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Kassai of the Golden Sand
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
41st • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hamilton Summer (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 15:85
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jordan Raposo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leah Panitz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
44th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.5
Surp
4.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Devin McAtee (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Round 3: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72
Round 7: Win vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jason Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 15% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
88th • 2-6-0
50%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathaniel Leonardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Zumwalt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Pritchard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Evan Duda (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 17:83
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Garcia (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Reichert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Win vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 15:85
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jason Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-1
60%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Garcia (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 15:85
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dalton Nida (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Draw |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Martinez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Summer Giles (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.