Zyggy Starlight
14 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 8-3-0
18%
Meta
+4.0
Perf
5.7
Surp
8.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Blake Freeman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emilio Pereira-Tosado (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Riley Akers (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
Round 13: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 14: Win vs Isaac Davison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R16 CC
Round 16: Win vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R17 CC
Round 17: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
18% (2/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
8.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R15 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 25% | Loss |
| R16 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R17 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
62nd • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
4.3
Surp
5.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Troy Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gavin Trosclair (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Round 13: Win vs Jake Montalbano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Jon Gibson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
84th • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Murnieks (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cody Williams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Noah Biros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Jake Bowar (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
127th • 5-4-0
67%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cody Williams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Nilsson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Hudgins (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R14 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
| R15 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Raj Parikh (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
Round 3: Win vs Tyson Au (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 80% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Eric Lin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs nathan lapham (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Giovanni Scuderi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.2
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aymen Kabel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Max Escaler (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Simon Aguirre (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 17:83
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Frederick Governale (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 86:14
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Musgrove (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Blake Ayotte (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mackenzie Gordon (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kenny Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wesley Chandler (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dean Carr (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 28:72
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Thomas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Frederick Governale (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Colin Turner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kent Summerour (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Lau (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 17:83
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Max Escaler (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Porter Boroski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 15% | Win |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
40%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs John Abanto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 27:73
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bill Fox (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.