US National Championship 2026 - Aurora, Legacy of Tempest (CC) - FaB-Results

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

30th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Rim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Wai Leem Au Yong (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

Arakni, Huntsman

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenneth Shivers (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Jarl Vetreiði

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Cooper (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 17:83

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Emilio Pereira-Tosado (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alvin Kim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

25:75

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brady Bicknell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rich Pauls (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

Dash I/O

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R4	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Kenneth Shivers

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

Oscilio, Forked Continuum

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Fischer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Aurora, Legacy of Tempest

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs jordan johnson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Forked Continuum	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Corrigan

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raimello Jackson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Ford (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Dash I/O

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.60
R5	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rachel Van Leeuwen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Rim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Valda, Seismic Impact

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Wolverton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Dorinthea Ironsong

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Rotondi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher Rivera

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordyn Denver (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon King (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Giri (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Betsy, Skin in the Game

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CODY READY (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rolando Matta Jr (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Wesley Chandler

dropped • 0-5-0

80%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Irvin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Zyggy Starlight

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Montalbano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Rim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Olympia, Prized Fighter

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Trenton Mercer (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dakota Sisk (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Kassai of the Golden Sand

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.