Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
123rd • 5-4-0
33%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
4.1
Surp
4.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Artie Hamelin (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Round 5: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Dylan Ford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Forked Continuum | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
85th • 4-5-0
33%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
4.2
Surp
4.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Fox (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Fay (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Samuel Young (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44
Round 14: Win vs Justin Irby (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
R15
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R15 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-1-0
40%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Eric Towne (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Corrigan (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
Round 4: Win vs Corwin Benton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Derek Anderson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Harrison Deemer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bryan Knecht (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tho Bui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Greg Sutcliffe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyson Au (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Donald Stevenson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Doug Frauman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Summer Giles (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Domenic Wilkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Davison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Mihilli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Valentino (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
dropped • 0-5-0
0%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Doug Frauman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Emery Powell (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Travonte Johnson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Philliips (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.