Katsu, the Wanderer at US National Championship 2026

Katsu, the Wanderer

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jaemes Chouinard

121st • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Fan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

10:90

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.18
R15	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Michael Dailey

122nd • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kaden Schoonover (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Strickland-Robbins (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

5:95

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Brandon Green (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R14	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.77
R15	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-

Colin Topper

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evelyn Thomas (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Norris (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Katherine Black (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Owen Bitting (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.21
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R14	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bryan Knecht

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Oscilio, Forked Continuum) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Place (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

5:95

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Forked Continuum	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.