Puffin, Hightail at US National Championship 2026
Puffin, Hightail
18 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
46th • 6-2-1
33%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.0
Surp
4.9
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Sorensen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
Round 3: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Noah Fogle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
R15
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Emilio Pereira-Tosado (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Draw |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 50% | Win |
78th • 6-3-0
22%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.5
Surp
4.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs kevin Ebner (Unknown)
Round 2: Win vs Isaac Davison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christian Vitanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Austin Henry (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Zak Miller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Zyggy Starlight | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R15 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
93rd • 5-3-1
22%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
5.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paul Gibby (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Win vs Nathan McCarthy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lily Reynoso (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Bryce Stroyek (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Round 15: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Draw |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
32nd • 4-5-0
56%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
4.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexander Heger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ty Murray (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Biros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
Round 4: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Smith (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 12: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Manoj Malipeddu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
Round 15: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Zyggy Starlight | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Loss |
118th • 4-5-0
44%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Blake Ayotte (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ronnie Lloyd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
Round 12: Loss vs June Lekstutis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
40:60
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
R14
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Colin Topper (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R14 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R15 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
129th • 4-5-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Stanko (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Silvester Nava (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Brandon Green (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Round 15: Win vs Jacob Fullingim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Win |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremie Maurina (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Win vs Joe Nichols (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Landon Lord (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kaileb Shipman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bill Fox (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Hawkinson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rich Pauls (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Logan Walton (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 3: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew W (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Zyggy Starlight | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Elsey (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Bruner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
Round 5: Win vs Craig Krempels (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Carlos Rosario (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Omar Soubra (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
Round 4: Win vs Diana Green (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Barrett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Phillip Bourner (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 29:71
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mark Taylor (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs David Place (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
60%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Manoj Malipeddu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Kent Summerour (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 82:18
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Danielewicz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Draw |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eric Lin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jason Nakata (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Morrison (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lee Kimball (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Donnan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
Round 5: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
0.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zyggy Starlight | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.