Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster at US National Championship 2026

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carlos Rosario

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Irby (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kosei chetanna (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

5:95

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 6:94

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Terpstra (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.34
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	5%	Loss	✗	0.06	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	15%	Win	✗	0.83	2.58

Logan Walton

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph McKinley (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Riley Akers (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.89
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Bell

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ronnie Lloyd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Neet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charles Simmons (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Ferraiz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Emi Sieting

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Wong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 8:92

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Musgrove (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raimello Jackson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	10%	Loss	✗	0.08	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Phillip Bourner

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Judd (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.