Kayo, Underhanded Cheat at US National Championship 2026

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Emilio Pereira-Tosado

77th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Abanto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Pettinelli (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs jordan johnson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brenden Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R15

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Nathan Smith (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.73
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.47
R15	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chandler Bushnell

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Young (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Butera (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wesley Dong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.64

Nick Yaksich

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 46:54

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Micah Luff (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Hamilton Summer

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.