US National Championship 2026 - Arakni, Huntsman (CC)

Arakni, Huntsman

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Holden Isaacs

54th • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

5.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan McCarthy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs jordan johnson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Devin Simms (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

R15

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.10
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.19
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R15	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Taotao Chu

90th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

5.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Beck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Fryar (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Myles Schortgen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Damien Riggins (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Justin Kinison (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Noah Zinn (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.61
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.11
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.35

David Reitenbach

102nd • 7-2-0

33%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brett Merold (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wesley Dong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josef Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Barrett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Codi Barnett (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joe Santianna (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

90:10

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jaemes Chouinard (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 89:11

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.35
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.55
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.26
R15	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.27

Ryan Newberry

82nd • 5-3-1

44%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Swinford (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Gudan (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Jose Garcia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joseph Musgrove (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Gabriel Barrett (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.26
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R14	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.92
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Kindreck Hegsted

52nd • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joe Santianna (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordyn Denver (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marsha Ho (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

R15

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.37
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.16
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.30
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R15	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67

Jack Sandau

dropped • 4-1-0

60%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Kruman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Fancher (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Kennedy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.03
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

Ethan Davison

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Hamilton (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Theodore Raitzer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Colin Carney (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 78:22

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Emilio Pereira-Tosado (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.35
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.29
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luis Maderas

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Kennedy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Holderbaugh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Young (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Avila (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.18
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Hayley Neighbors

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Hine (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs nathan lapham (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Rim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.28
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Duane Flier

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.