Dorinthea Ironsong at US National Championship 2026
Dorinthea Ironsong
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
136th • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Fox (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chase Keeton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 22:78
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kenneth Shivers (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
R13
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Robin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Dylan Ford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R15 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Brenden Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Del Pako (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Randall Robinson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 85% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Hasan Abdali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Steven Suh (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 22:78
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Randy Davis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Victor Lam (Unknown)
Round 2: Win vs Austin Gargiule (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jordyn Denver (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gary Gold (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Nilsson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Reichert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Irvin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jade Williams (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs William Warnek (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Gohl (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Steel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hayden Porter (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joe Mastowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Towne (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Vincent (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Legacy of Tempest | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
20%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Nieves Santiago (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Isaac Hirt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.