US National Championship 2026 - Ira, Scarlet Revenger (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christopher Little

dropped • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Domenic Wilkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Groff (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robin Avenoso (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.33
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.51
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Elliott Rinke

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trent Nguyen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Heger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenny Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Hartman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.65
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Matthew Nolder

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Record (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sam Coons (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Gibson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.47
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Winson Lee

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Ejupi (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Fogle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Warnek

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Vincent (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Cooper Templeton

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Wood (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Kruman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.