US National Championship 2026 - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Damien Riggins

11th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alan Jernigan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aymen Kabel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Isaac Davison (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs David Bruner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.21
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.42
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.94
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.16
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Daniel Ferrara

38th • 5-4-0

33%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.6

Surp

5.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Adams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Landon Lord (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Nolder (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kaden Schoonover (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Majin Bae (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Alvin Kim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.24
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.76
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.00
R14	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.71
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Tristan Del Pako

91st • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alberto Rosario (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Summer Giles (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Zak Cargin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

65:35

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Darren Rennie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.31
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.49
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.25
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.08

Marco Marcelli

105th • 5-4-0

22%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Crowley (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Watkins (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Irvin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Myles Schortgen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Omar Soubra (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.85
R13	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.99
R15	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.73

John Cooper

111th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Hannan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler To (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josef Mendez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs jordan johnson (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Raea Mitchell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.62
R5	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.15
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.25
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Josh Lind

dropped • 4-1-0

40%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lau (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Avila (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Feng (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Irvin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.36
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.88
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Alexander Young

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Weinfeld (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Maderas (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Logan May (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.54
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.46
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Randy Davis

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Silvester Nava (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emery Powell (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Colin Carney (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.71
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.75

SEAN STELL

dropped • 2-2-1

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Chase Keeton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.33
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.66
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-

Brandon Butera

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Mendelsohn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs June Lekstutis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Johnathan Esquivel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Braxton Palmer

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lilith Duhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Norris (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Blake Ayotte (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Brett Merold

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Beck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Henson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Harrison Deemer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Dominick Wolfgang

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kenneth Thomas (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Gudan (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ronnie Lloyd (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Eric Dauernnheim

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oscar Aguilar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raj Giri (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.55
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.88
R5	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Jeremy Pennington

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cody Santo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dakota Sisk (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Williams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.11
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Lee Kimball

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nathan lapham (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 14:86

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Trenberth (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Oren Yishai (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Canedy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.39
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.44
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Philip Torres

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Seth Clark (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Chan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darren Rennie (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Chafe (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Abanto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.18
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Thomas Johnson-Averette

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Hudgins (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kindreck Hegsted (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Mastowski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oscar Aguilar (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.39

David Lee

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Jordan Biggs

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Norris (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.