Fai, Rising Rebellion
3 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 8-3-0
64%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Nichols (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Danielle Williams (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Round 5: Win vs Dagan White (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Gump (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61
75:25
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R16 CC
Round 16: Win vs Aaron Grace (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R17 CC
Round 17: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
64% (7/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R15 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R16 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R17 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
5th • 9-1-0
60%
Meta
+3.8
Perf
5.0
Surp
7.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Danielewicz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Raheel Khalid (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 54:46
Round 3: Win vs NIGEL LOUTZENHISER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Noah Zinn (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Aaron Grace (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Round 15: Win vs Ryan Rich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R16 CC
Round 16: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
60% (6/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
7.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Zyggy Starlight | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R16 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
65th • 5-4-0
44%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.7
Surp
2.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Wampler (Unknown)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Canedy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Rich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs William Pistel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Allen Cameron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R14 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R15 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.