Dash I/O at Calling: Seattle

Dash I/O

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Pacheco

38th • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

5.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Swinford (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.31
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.76
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Angel Fernandez

52nd • 7-5-0

58%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Neet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kenny Tran (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Tiller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ethan Kennedy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Adam Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sam Cameron (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.79
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Daniel Flavin

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brayden Mitchell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Devon Killebrew

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Holly Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Angel Moret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Luke Harris

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arjun Garg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Katrina Short (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raul Quiroga (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.36
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.44

Luke Leonard

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs steven coker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dana Martin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Swinford (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs jordan johnson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Mint Carroll

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Khuu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs DJ Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Katrina Short (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Taige Houk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.41
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Blake Freeman

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chevanna Larson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Damian Winderlich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Will Prater (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Manship (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Charlie Heavilin

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sarath Vega (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Stephens (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Peter Sundholm

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Damian Winderlich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brendan Schmidt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cary Young (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Colin Marshall

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cary Young (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brody Lewis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Swinford (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Pat Eshghy

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dana Martin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs augustine shim (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Botts (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nate Stratton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Taylor Stuhr

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Machi C (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.23
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyson Au

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kristian Tate (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Kennedy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josef Mendez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.30
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.69
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Alexander Burnett

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jake Brose (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Winther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.39
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Aydan Basher

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle James (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Jennings (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jake Brose (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Cavanagh

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sam Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Asa Burke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Donald Stevenson

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Judd (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Christoffersen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.