Fang, Dracai of Blades at Calling: Seattle

Fang, Dracai of Blades

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Patrick R

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Avery Myles (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Winther (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs augustine shim (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.04
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ryan Hammond

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Morrison (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hudson Graves (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 28:72

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Micah Luff (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Wood (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tabitha Stehman

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Devon Drury (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cary Young (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sarath Vega

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.