Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at Calling: Seattle

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Lorenz

5th • 11-1-0

92%

Meta

+4.4

Perf

5.4

Surp

4.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Stephenson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jon Cardenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Wang (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ethan Kennedy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.48
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.86
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Timothy Wang

20th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andy Hong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Bruner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (6.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.05
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alexander Vore

26th • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.2

Surp

4.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs nathan ericksen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordyn Denver (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Luke Manship (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Edison Yue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Kennedy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.49
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.17
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Tran

28th • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lam (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Rice (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nick Tiller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Arjun Garg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs steven coker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.35
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.41
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Joshua Neitzel

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Logan King (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.19
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

nathan ericksen

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ivan Joy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Albert Purvis (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jamin Welch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ezekiel Morrison (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Steven Leyva

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Brandon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Pham (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bailey Kehret (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Avery Myles (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maxwell Taylor

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.69
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.36
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nicholas Kreitzburg

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Madison Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Hudson Graves

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Hammond (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.24
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Andre Judd

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Saiewitz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mason O'Mara

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brayden Varela (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.