Kassai of the Golden Sand
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 10-2-0
50%
Meta
+4.2
Perf
6.0
Surp
5.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kathryn Aulabaugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Win vs Justin Irby (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ethan Kennedy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60
Round 6: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Arjun Garg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39
Round 8: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kenny Tran (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
5.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
51st • 7-5-0
42%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
6.2
Surp
4.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Anthony Pham (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60
Round 11: Win vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 12: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Neitzel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Stephens (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Liam Brozik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60
Round 5: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jared Mergener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Neet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39
Round 4: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Riley Middleton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Wang (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Win vs Ian Campbell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22
Round 5: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryan Ward (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Drew Bosco (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Biggs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Round 4: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Kreitzburg (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Wood (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.