Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
23rd • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
6.0
Surp
3.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Winther (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Evan Brook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22
Round 7: Win vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Nate Stratton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34
Round 10: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Round 12: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Loss |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
27th • 8-4-0
50%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.8
Surp
3.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Spencer Fuhriman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Catherine Levine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Win vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Andy Hong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
15:85
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
40th • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
6.0
Surp
3.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sam Tsafalas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Elena Arnold (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Riley Middleton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
Round 4: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Timothy Wang (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 10: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
59th • 6-6-0
75%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
5.5
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kyle Banfill ()
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dennis Pham (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bailey Kehret (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Spencer Fuhriman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Round 9: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 11: Loss vs Machi C (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (6.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
60th • 6-6-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
5.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Micah Luff (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luke Manship (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryan Cochran (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Hayden Stephens (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs None ()
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (6.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Oscar Villalobos ()
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Donald Stevenson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Bruner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Debrian Figueroa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Scott Khuu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Blake Freeman (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Stanko (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Joe Canton Encarnacion (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Brandon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyson Au (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Mendelsohn (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Tiller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sam Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mitchell Woodland (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 78:22
Round 5: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peter Sundholm (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Pham (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-1
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Evan Rice (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Draw |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.