Arakni, Huntsman at Calling: Seattle

Arakni, Huntsman

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Caleb Engen

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Luke Manship (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tsubasa Ueda

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 15:85

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Angel Moret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.06
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Taylor Morrow

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 15:85

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Brandon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Stephenson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Karl Horvath

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bailey Kehret (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Kyle Farrell

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Santos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ivan Joy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Caleb Robbins

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Katrina Short (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.