Arakni, Huntsman at Calling: Seattle — FaB-Results

Arakni, Huntsman

Arakni, Huntsman

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27

Kano, Dracai of Aether

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Luke Manship (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.38
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Teriki Soliai (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 64:36

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Angel Moret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.38
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.14
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Brandon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Stephenson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Dorinthea Ironsong

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.53
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Jarl Vetreiði

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bailey Kehret (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Santos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ivan Joy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Katrina Short (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.