Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Seattle

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jamin Welch

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs jordan johnson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs nathan ericksen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Loren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Joseph Gannon

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Holly Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jayne Van Ness (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Buell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Liam Brozik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ezekiel Morrison (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.59
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Sean Judd

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Donald Stevenson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brett Bowden (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Brandon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Daniel Winckler

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jamin Welch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy cao (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.