Calling: Seattle - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jamin Welch

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs jordan johnson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs nathan ericksen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Loren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Joseph Gannon

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Holly Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jayne Van Ness (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Buell (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Liam Brozik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ezekiel Morrison (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.49
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.33

Sean Judd

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Donald Stevenson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brett Bowden (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Brandon (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Daniel Winckler

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jamin Welch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy cao (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.