Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Seattle

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brody Lewis

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Will Prater (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Wood (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.64
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.36
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Catherine Levine

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carson Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Wonser (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Bruner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Kevin Santos

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raul Quiroga (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Farrell (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.22
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.17
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jayne Van Ness

dropped • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Ward (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brendan Schmidt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Chan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.54
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.95
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Tyler Botts

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taige Houk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Travis Spicer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Harrop (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mitchell Woodland (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.53
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Ben Swinford

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Leonard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.06
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.89
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Dexter Simmons

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Case Finlay ()

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ezekiel Morrison (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Suryan Bhatia

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Vanderleek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Snow (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.27
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.31
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Joe Ellis

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Irby (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None ()

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Travis Spicer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Donath ()

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kristian Tate (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Botts (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Asa Burke

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Cavanagh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs augustine shim (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ivan Joy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.