Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Win vs Will Prater (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Wood (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Carson Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Simon Wonser (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Bruner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Raul Quiroga (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kyle Farrell (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs francisco guerrero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Ward (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brendan Schmidt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Chan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taige Houk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Travis Spicer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Harrop (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 6: Win vs Mitchell Woodland (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.5
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Leonard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Colin Marshall (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Case Finlay ()
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ezekiel Morrison (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
Round 6: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joel Vanderleek (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Snow (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Irby (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None ()
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66
Round 4: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | 50% | Win | |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Donath ()
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kristian Tate (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Botts (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs William Cavanagh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs augustine shim (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ivan Joy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.