Kano, Dracai of Aether
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 9-3-0
67%
Meta
+3.3
Perf
5.7
Surp
5.2
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alan Rogers (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kristian Tate (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Caleb Engen (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Fisher Johnson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Clair (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
Round 8: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 9: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
15:85
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
14th • 9-3-0
83%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.5
Surp
3.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Wesley Dong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Theodore Tan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexander Hembroff (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Baughn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Catherine Levine (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Sam Cameron (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
15:85
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Isaak Krut (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
85:15
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 84:16
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
83% (10/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 85% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
37th • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
5.8
Surp
3.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mark Bradshaw ()
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nick Tiller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68
Round 4: Win vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Riley Middleton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jakob Allan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
15:85
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Will Prater (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Isaak Krut (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Connor Symons (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
Round 6: Win vs William Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Devon Killebrew (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mitchell Woodland (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 33:67
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raul Quiroga (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Liam Brozik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Loren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 39:61
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Josh Lind (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Sitton (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brayden Mitchell (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matt Muus (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.