Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Seattle

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Mergener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Stanko (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raul Sierra (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Avery Smith (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.70
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

DYLAN MANGINI

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taige Houk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Elly Bird

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Iniguez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Brook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brett Bowden (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Damian Winderlich

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Sundholm (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Freeman (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.