Calling: Seattle - Rhinar, Reckless Rampage (CC)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Mergener (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Stanko (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raul Sierra (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Avery Smith (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.70
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.67
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.36
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

DYLAN MANGINI

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elton Zhen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Morgan Bawcom-Randall (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taige Houk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.98
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Elly Bird

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Iniguez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Brook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brett Bowden (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Damian Winderlich

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Sundholm (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Freeman (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.