Calling: Hamburg 2025 - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

42 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sean Knowelden

31st • 9-4-0

54%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

6.2

Surp

4.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timo Jakobs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gary Anderson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Khoi Dinh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stefan Bernhardt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Georg Sossnowetz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Marc Germond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrei Dragne (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.09
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.25
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.13
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.27
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.79
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.90
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R13	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Yorick Schulte

50th • 8-5-0

46%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Haroldas Stravinskas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Bausch (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robert Giebel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Schauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nastassja Baum (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Noah Hicks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Giorgos Dailianis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Timo Juraschek (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

46% (6/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.15
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.20
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.39
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.49
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.04
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.68
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS

67th • 7-6-0

38%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

6.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nils Hauck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Lerens (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lukas Proske (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Giorgos Dailianis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Dolejš (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Florian Anger (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jakob Immer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

38% (5/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.30
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.25
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.24
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.59
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.68
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.12
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bram Hast (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Anderson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stefano Berian (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kenni Pedersen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Linh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Danilo Calcagno

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Klenke (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Rosenkrans (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.07
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Francisco Leiva Espanhol

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nils Büchner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gary White (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mike Pfeiffer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wiktor Woźniak (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Kuric (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Simone Busatto (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Henry Wiesner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.39
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.44
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Manuel Köber

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matti Salmi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Björn Kaminski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Francisc Loghin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Erik Klinger (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.72
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Simone Busatto

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Falko Holzenhauer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Güntekin Koc (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nico Stangel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Krzysztof Figas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Francisco Leiva Espanhol (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Gadalla (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.19
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Bocahut

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anders Andersen ()

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andreas Türke (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Christian Bach (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.77
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.35

Alexander Vollmers

dropped • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Paziewski (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Müllner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marius Pfaff (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benedict Hartfiel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Leonel Samayoa (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Gums (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.51
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Casper Bager

dropped • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Xavier laperrouze (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonel Samayoa (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Romane Dubost (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Layne Forrest (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Staubesandt (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Martin Müllner

dropped • 2-6-0

38%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vollmers (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ashelin Gadal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs George Matzaris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marc Bluhm (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Paulsen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mike Pfeiffer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Paweł Romanowski

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tore Lütjens (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marc Bluhm (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Can Gani Cevik (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs João Zeni (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aaron Henke (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bram Hast (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.25
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Philipp Kuschel

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yannick Günthart (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Viet Thuy Nguyen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mauriz Schwenger (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Nijssen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Victor Lenoble

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yannick Neumann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Queck (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Erik Schroedter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.66
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.04
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Ania Grudnowska

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Becker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Buda (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steffen Gursinsky (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.77
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bram Hast

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kai Martin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Indigo Bosworth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Gremm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Darian Papke (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christian Pelka

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Müller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominic Passow (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Murray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs George Matzaris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.79
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.35

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Gillich (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lasse Saxer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Laura Wichert (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Simon Wolf (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.98
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Mikko Salmi

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcel Leichtle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Laurenz Adolph (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Ventzel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Edmond (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marc Paulsen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.27
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Sergiu Morar

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niklas Wunsch (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Francisc Loghin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Thomas van Dijk

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Prull (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Gehringer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Traian Costea (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Antony Butorin (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Moore (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.11
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Finlay Freir

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marius Pfaff (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Heidorn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Casper Bager (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nils Büchner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Henry Wiesner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Jack Warren

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Teunnissen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Florian Anger (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Julien Desuter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Steffen Gursinsky (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Benedikt Scharf (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Maximilian Stabenow

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeppe Madsen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mike Pfeiffer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Valon Maxhuni (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Julia Brown (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Bertram (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Robert Mueller

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Klenke (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joel Dixon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Wernecke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Vincent Krenzke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyhrone Bennett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.88
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Angus Sünner

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Rodger (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Wernecke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Timo Juraschek (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.23
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Marc Wollenweber

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benedikt Scharf (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yannick Pfeiffer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tore Lütjens (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Nico Stangel

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Hauck (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Germond (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Malander (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Artur Dziadosz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Simone Busatto (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Ronan Campbell

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lasse Saxer (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Merz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jan Hendrik Wewering (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Gums (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Philippos Koulousakis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.97
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.66
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Viet Thuy Nguyen

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ove Hasselhorst (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aaron Henke (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Philipp Kuschel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joel Dixon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.54

Sebastian Gremm

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Czermin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Fries (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Enes Findik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Döhrer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bram Hast (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Stefan Karlsson

dropped • 1-5-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Schneider (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ismael Boulbaz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jan Tillmanns (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christian Bach (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bidinger Mikael

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Merz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.81
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Kristian Čurla

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Guarober (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hennrik Wittke (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Achin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jan Kučera (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Maciej Szawica

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Krause (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Henke (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Lipke (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Surmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Robin Wagner

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matti Salmi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elmar Höfinghoff (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.31
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.35

Stephan Schwarz

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Rickard (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Akers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs PANAGIOTIS KOSTOGLOU (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.70
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

David Calf

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Traian Costea (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simon Wolf (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.09
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Peter Smyth

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Akers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frank Pilchowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Thorbjørn Lind Jensen

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laurenz Adolph (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Roche (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs András Kovács (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tigran Grigorian

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Manuel Hoffmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Gadalla (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.