Arakni, Huntsman at Calling: Hamburg 2025

Arakni, Huntsman

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alvaro Toledano Benito

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kenni Pedersen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Stettin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diorge Brognara (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs João Zeni (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Linh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Vasil Boev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Timo Juraschek (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.64
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Luca Barcella

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kai Schitenhoff (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Bertram (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Jentzsch (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Drees Giebel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs George Matzaris (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Reitbauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Daniel Brockhage

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Giorgos Dailianis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Karanjeet Singh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marcus Räthe (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.21
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.82
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

nino Zimmermann

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexej Vollmer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Buntrock (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.