Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-4-0
12%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Win vs Marc Paulsen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bram Hast (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Round 7: Win vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Bausch (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nastassja Baum (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Karanjeet Singh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Robert Mueller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Simon Wagner (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tjorven Meyer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tim Bierholz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-5-0
50%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Artis Ivanovs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ania Grudnowska (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcus Löffler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49
Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Maximilian Czermin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs John Kitsos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Becker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Danilo Calcagno (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 44:56
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexander Lermer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Artis Ivanovs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 24:76
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Patrik Weber (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brennen Davis (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gary Kelly (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Manuel Köber (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Julia Angermeier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
33%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brendan McManus (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 24:76
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mikołaj Fabrowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alexej Vollmer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Karl Roche (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marcus Räthe (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Julia Angermeier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nils Hauck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Frederic Diebold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs András Kovács (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.