Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Alexander Vollmers (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthias Hagel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Laura Wichert (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bart de Jong (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.