Pleiades, Superstar at Calling: Hamburg 2025
Pleiades, Superstar
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 7-5-0
8%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
6.0
Surp
3.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Karl Roche (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Angus Sünner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Artis Ivanovs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Viet Pham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Daniel Stettin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Bartosz Ziemba (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
Round 11: Win vs Anthony Achin (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
8% (1/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-6-0
0%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rene Lorentsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Paul Beese (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Simone Busatto (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maximilian Stabenow (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Maximilian Malander (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sergiu Morar (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs David Surmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maciej Graszek (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas Bocahut (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Fries (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Charlie Fahey (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
33%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hennrik Wittke (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Finn Macdonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Surmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Julia Angermeier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rok Havlas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tanguy Meignier (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Maximilian Steinkusch (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.