Prism, Awakener of Sol at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

18 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Paul Chen

3rd • 8-2-0

70%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Higgs (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jodey Burney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony LaCassa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bryan Nikla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 82:18

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

90:10

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 89:11

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.09
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.41
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.11
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.75
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Randy Davis

13th • 6-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Smith (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chandler Payne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Seneca Pressley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs KC Glass (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Fontan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Draw	✓	0.66	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Timothy Scroggs

9th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carson Coker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Lundie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Smitte (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Paul Chen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.12
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Smitte

14th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

90:10

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Murphy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 89:11

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Walker (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Benoit (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

90:10

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 89:11

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.02
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.16

Patrick Weiss

41st • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Walter Snowden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kevin Murphy

57th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Unknown)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zac Bailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.32
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Brandon Lundie

59th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Seneca Pressley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Williamson (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Drew Walker (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

15:85

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.80
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

David Andrews

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mason Brantley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Smitte (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Perry Diamaduros

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryan Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Laflamme (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jasper Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Jonathan Gray

dropped • 1-4-2

71%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Stevan Workman (Unknown)

90:10

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Coma (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 89:11

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Chris Abel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	90%	Win	✓	0.11	0.07
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Walter Snowden

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Capps (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs charles singleton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.44
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jordan Self

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Violet Dold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Charles Siegismund III (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Carson Coker

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gary Arreaga (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Barnette (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.90
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Michael-Paul Johnson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Ybarra (Unknown)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Stan Jarozewski

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Pridemore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Trace Cooper

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Davis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Conrad Niebuhr

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kenny Thai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Schellhaas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Chandler Payne

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Mays (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.