Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joseph Fisher

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Lynn (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.98
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Kenny Thai

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Conrad Niebuhr (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chris Abel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.15
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

John Havens

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Blake Payne (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Murphy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.