Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joseph Fisher

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 41:59

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Lynn (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 41:59

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.00
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kenny Thai

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Conrad Niebuhr (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chris Abel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

John Havens

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Blake Payne (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Murphy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.