Nuu, Alluring Desire at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Nuu, Alluring Desire
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
11th • 6-1-1
88%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Joseph Davis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Fisher (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Seneca Pressley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yuanji Li (Unknown)
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Draw |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
15th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Travis Henning (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michelle Chalmers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31
Round 4: Win vs Jordan Self (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Unknown)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Patrick Ovaert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
16th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Benoit (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rishabh Chari (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
17th • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chloee Hoyle (Unknown)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Patric Gigar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs James Pridemore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathan Paciorek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52
Round 7: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-1
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David M. Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Patrick Ovaert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Draw |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-1
83%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jack Faullin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Biros (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Draw |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christian Ybarra (Unknown)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joseph Fisher (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-1
67%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Benoit (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cynthia Alonso (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
Round 4: Win vs Michael-Paul Johnson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Draw |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ben Hernandez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
Round 2: Loss vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Ovaert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Murphy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.