Dorinthea Ironsong at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Dorinthea Ironsong
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
51st • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Drew Clark (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sarah Marley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
56th • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Danny Mercer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Nikla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Byers (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 76:24
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Erik Dethlefs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
75th • 3-5-0
25%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 76:24
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Benoit (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Cody Schellhaas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Trevor Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 29:71
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jasper Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Seneca Pressley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bryan Sweeney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-1
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jasper Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Trace Cooper (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Draw |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.