Azalea, Ace in the Hole at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Blake Payne (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs charles singleton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Noah Biros (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jason Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
67th • 4-3-1
38%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Fox (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Noah Biros (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Paul Sauer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Travis Henning (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ben Hernandez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Draw |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Finnegan Shelton (Unknown)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steven Bowers (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joe Bey (Unknown)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David M. Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Win vs Carlos Rayazuniga (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Win vs Carlos Rayazuniga (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.