Jarl Vetreiði at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Jarl Vetreiði
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
53rd • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Loss vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Moyer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christopher Benoit (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
Round 8: Loss vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
81st • 3-3-2
75%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jameson Hughes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ethan Mays (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Billy Williams III (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nick Coma (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 37:63
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Draw |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Draw |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
80th • 3-4-1
75%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cody Schellhaas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
Round 2: Loss vs Porter Jones (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jack Faullin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Erik Dethlefs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Stephen Higgs (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Draw |
72nd • 3-5-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alex Thompson (Unknown)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Cody Barnette (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Paul Chen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Cody Blackmore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
Round 8: Loss vs Zena Breeland (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Everett Irby (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zac Bailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dylan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bryan Nikla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Stan Jarozewski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cody Barnette (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chandler Payne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Paul Sauer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Higgs (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 32:68
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Havens (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mark Murphy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.