Ira, Scarlet Revenger at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Connor Babcock

2nd • 9-2-0

64%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

5.4

Surp

5.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

64% (7/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.07
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.15
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.27
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.50
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.51
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.69
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.21
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.70
R10	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Stephen Higgs

77th • 3-4-1

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Chen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Siegismund III (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Mays (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Everett Irby (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

5:95

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 5:95

5:95

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 5:95

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-

Seneca Pressley

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Lundie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Allison Oram (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Chris Abel

dropped • 1-3-1

20%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trevor Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 5:95

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Houder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Jonathan Gray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kenny Thai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.05	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.66
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andrew Wilborn

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.