Ira, Scarlet Revenger
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 9-2-0
73%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
5.2
Surp
4.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shawn Edwards (Unknown)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 64:36
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
73% (8/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
77th • 3-4-1
38%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Paul Chen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Siegismund III (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ethan Mays (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Everett Irby (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Draw |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brandon Lundie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Allison Oram (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
20%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Trevor Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Houder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Jonathan Gray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kenny Thai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Draw |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Loss vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.