Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
23rd • 6-2-0
38%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.5
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
Round 2: Win vs Danny Mercer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Win vs Zac Bailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Eris Schmidt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
95:5
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Stephen Higgs (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 95:5
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cody Blackmore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 95% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
35th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Paciorek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
Round 7: Win vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
42nd • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs NICOLE HEENAN (Unknown)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Billy Williams III (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ben Hernandez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Laflamme (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Round 8: Win vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
45th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marcus Queen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joe Bey (Unknown)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Shawn Edwards (Unknown)
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
95:5
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Stephen Higgs (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 95:5
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 95% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
55th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Faciane (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69
95:5
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chris Abel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 95:5
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nick Desmarais (Unknown)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Round 5: Win vs Perry Diamaduros (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 95% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jae-Moon Hwang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joe Bey (Unknown)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 82:18
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Walter Snowden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marcus Queen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dustin Self (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.