Vynnset, Iron Maiden at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Porter Jones

5th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.08
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.39
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.65
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.47
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mara Faris

36th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carson Coker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.45
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Eric Wilson

37th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony LaCassa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.23
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.38
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.77

Naib Mobassir

39th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cynthia Alonso (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Caden Stabler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brandon Lundie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.89
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.31
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.27

Thomas Johnson-Averette

58th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Coma (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs charles singleton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Ovaert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Perry Diamaduros (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Zena Breeland

66th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony LaCassa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patric Gigar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eris Schmidt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bryan Nikla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.77

Ben Hernandez

73rd • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Reinhardt (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jarik Bowen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Hunter Street

86th • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Barnette (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Fisher (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Mays (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marcus Queen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paul Sauer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Gray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.24
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Cindrah Moore

87th • 2-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sarah Marley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Dethlefs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Coma (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Gray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bryce Morgan

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stevan Workman (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Shawn Edwards (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.64
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Fox

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Lynn (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michelle Chalmers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Cynthia Alonso

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Bethea (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stevan Workman (Unknown)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Billy Williams III

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carlos Rayazuniga (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Paul Sauer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jarik Bowen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Draw	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Jack Faullin

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs KC Glass (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Reinhardt (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryan Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Colin Smith

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.