Vynnset, Iron Maiden at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
15 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Round 2: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34
Round 4: Win vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jason Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
36th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Carson Coker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
37th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony LaCassa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Round 8: Win vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
39th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cynthia Alonso (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
Round 4: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 6: Win vs Caden Stabler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Round 7: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Brandon Lundie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
58th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nick Coma (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs charles singleton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Ovaert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Perry Diamaduros (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
66th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony LaCassa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patric Gigar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Loss vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Eris Schmidt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 29:71
Round 8: Win vs Bryan Nikla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
73rd • 3-5-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Will Reinhardt (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dylan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chase Effler (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jarik Bowen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Abe Geidel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
86th • 2-6-0
75%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cody Barnette (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Fisher (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Mays (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marcus Queen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Paul Sauer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Gray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
87th • 2-6-0
100%
Meta
-2.8
Perf
4.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sarah Marley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Erik Dethlefs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nick Coma (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Gray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Stevan Workman (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Shawn Edwards (Unknown)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
100%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Loss vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Lynn (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
Round 6: Loss vs Michelle Chalmers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Bethea (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Stevan Workman (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Carlos Rayazuniga (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Paul Sauer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jarik Bowen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Draw |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs KC Glass (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Will Reinhardt (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryan Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.