Aurora, Shooting Star
20 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chris Waugh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Zena Breeland (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christian Ybarra (Unknown)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Erik Dethlefs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Seth Clark (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
24th • 6-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcus Queen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joe Bey (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David M. Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Noah Zinn (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nathan Paciorek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
40th • 5-2-1
75%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Porter Jones (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Drew Clark (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Anthony Faciane (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Caden Stabler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs charles singleton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Draw |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
28th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Colin Smith (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Laflamme (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Lundie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Win vs Walter Snowden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
30th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Will Reinhardt (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Waugh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Paul Chen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Zachary Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
32nd • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Houder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jameson Hughes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Connor Babcock (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs KC Glass (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 7: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
38th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Wilborn (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs zion moore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
Round 3: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nathan Paciorek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Trevor Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
64th • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charles Siegismund III (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Everett Irby (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
74th • 3-4-1
88%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kenny Thai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cody Barnette (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Nathan Paciorek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Round 8: Loss vs Eris Schmidt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
82nd • 3-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Win vs Matt Fox (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Trevor Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Lundie (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Paul Sauer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
80:20
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 80% | Win |
83rd • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brian Smith (Unknown)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cody Blackmore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cody Schellhaas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Cody Barnette (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Steven Bowers (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Smith (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Helmly (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Bethea (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs KC Glass (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cody Blackmore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stevan Workman (Unknown)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Stephen Higgs (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joe Bey (Unknown)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Greg Mitchell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cody Schellhaas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jarik Bowen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Walter Snowden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mason Brantley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Smitte (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Paciorek (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 2: Loss vs Eris Schmidt (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Travis Henning (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Self (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
Round 3: Loss vs Jameson Hughes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Perry Diamaduros (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Unknown)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jack Faullin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chris Abel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.