Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
61st • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Michael-Paul Johnson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Carlos Rayazuniga (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David M. Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 39:61
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Gray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Bryan Sweeney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Erik Dethlefs (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.