SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ryan Miller

49th • 5-2-1

25%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Sweeney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gary Arreaga (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stan Jarozewski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.39
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Matthew Hyatt

70th • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Colin Smith (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jae-Moon Hwang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cynthia Alonso (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.37
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Draw	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.99

Erik Dethlefs

43rd • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Caden Stabler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steven Bowers (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.86

Jacob Smith

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Biros (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary Arreaga (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 34:66

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.68
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Carlos Rayazuniga

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Billy Williams III (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Clark (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Travis Henning (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.