Arakni, Marionette at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
49th • 5-2-1
50%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Sweeney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gary Arreaga (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Stan Jarozewski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
70th • 4-3-1
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
4.4
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
Round 2: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Colin Smith (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
Round 4: Loss vs Jae-Moon Hwang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Cynthia Alonso (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Terra Sinquefield (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Hunter Street (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Draw |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
43rd • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
4.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Caden Stabler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Cindrah Moore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Steven Bowers (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Round 8: Win vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 30% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Randy Davis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Noah Biros (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gary Arreaga (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Beckett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
75%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Billy Williams III (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alex Pennybacker (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 30:70
Round 3: Loss vs Drew Clark (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Travis Henning (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.