SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte - Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty (CC)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dakota Cook

46th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 17:83

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Everett Irby (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zac Bailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Laflamme (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Ovaert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 84:16

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.50
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.22
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

William Nuckolls

47th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Violet Dold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Bethea (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenny Thai (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jarik Bowen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Seneca Pressley (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gary Arreaga (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Jae-Moon Hwang

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs charles singleton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tommy Day (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dustin Self (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.28
R3	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.76
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.