SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte - Levia, Shadowborn Abomination (CC)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ian Fraser

54th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Brown (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Porter Jones (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rishabh Chari (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bryan Nikla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.18
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.86
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Michelle Chalmers

79th • 3-5-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Williamson (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Edwards (Unknown)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patric Gigar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matt Fox (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brian Trail (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gary Arreaga (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.91
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.16
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Eric Capps

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Walter Snowden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Moyer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Siegismund III (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.