Dash I/O at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

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4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rose smyth

5th • 8-1-0

78%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

4.4

Surp

4.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sarah Marley (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Self (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Trevor Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Porter Jones (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.18
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.78
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.95
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Chase Effler

31st • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trace Cooper (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryan Sweeney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ben Hernandez (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.07
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.60
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Sean Baker

34th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Walker (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Coppley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jae-Moon Hwang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Ybarra (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ashlyn Slattery (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eric Wilson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.84
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Patric Gigar

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trent Lynch (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jasper Hicks (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zena Breeland (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michelle Chalmers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.08
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.