Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chris Abel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
63rd • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony LaCassa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Loss vs Carson Coker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Smith (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Michelle Chalmers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
69th • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Davis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patric Gigar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35
Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 15:85
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Perry Diamaduros (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Unknown)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Laflamme (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Capps (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.