Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Trevor Rich

19th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Abel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Will Joseph (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rose smyth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 86:14

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Marchant (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tori Lakey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.07
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R5	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.05
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Gary Arreaga

63rd • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony LaCassa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carson Coker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Miller (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Smith (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs William Nuckolls (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michelle Chalmers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.16
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R8	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

Jasper Hicks

69th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Davis (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patric Gigar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lilith Duhart (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dustin Harris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 16:84

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Perry Diamaduros (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 71:29

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.05
R3	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.43
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.21

Chris Waugh

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Unknown)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christopher Moyer

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Laflamme (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Capps (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.