SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Charlotte - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jenan Wise

20th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.63
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Anthony Faciane

33rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs KC Glass (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dustin Self (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jameson Hughes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.15
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Christopher Benoit

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Smitte (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.23
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.43
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.