Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jenan Wise

20th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Curtis-Lee Pauley (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Morgan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jade Day-Burdett (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Raymond Griffin (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 43:57

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Geoff Walter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.43
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.90
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Anthony Faciane

33rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs KC Glass (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dustin Self (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derrick Azelton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jameson Hughes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Janine Dack (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Will Earnhardt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.07
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.46
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.84
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Christopher Benoit

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zoe Kelsey (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Edwin Ahn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Smitte (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Rea (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.46
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.