Calling: Portland 2024 - The 50th! - Classic Constructed - Aurora, Shooting Star (CC)

Aurora, Shooting Star

63 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Buddensiek

12th • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

6.0

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs aiden anable (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Woodland (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.67
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sadat Minick

14th • 9-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.6

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Nichols (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob Linn (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kristian Perez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Betsy COCHRAN (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Eric Keilback (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.08
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.19
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.66
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.85

Tommy Buljan

15th • 9-3-0

92%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Garcia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cole Noblitt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Keilback (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Matthew Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.49
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.31
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

DYLAN MANGINI

17th • 9-3-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

4.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ernesto Rodriguez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Norah Porter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Powell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Martin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Corwin Benton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Nennich (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Reese Toomre (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Drew Bosco (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.61
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.66
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.51
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

John Paul Kilcrease

30th • 8-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Tishendorf (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Justin Salmon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Allan

38th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew zickler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anemone Chamlin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Cavanagh (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chase Osborne (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mikko Pena (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Justin Lenaghan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.07
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.12
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.48
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.99

Cas Mulder

39th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs francisco guerrero (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Odin Boseth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brody Lewis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jeremiah Justice (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jordan Long (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.05
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Justin Lenaghan

44th • 8-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ted Vossen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Snyder (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tyson Au (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Drew Bosco (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Garrett Kent (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.78
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.47

Spencer Heaps

45th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andy Lindstrom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Newton Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Long (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Manu Sankepally (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Justin Salmon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.28
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.69
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tyler Biggs

46th • 8-4-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Baker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Rice (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kieth Seith (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Dailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Newton Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Manu Sankepally (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.56
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Justin Salmon

51st • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sam Cameron (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.05
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.44
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Brooks

54th • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Hughes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Snyder (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Roark (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jakob Allan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs sean Burke (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.04
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jordan Long

55th • 7-5-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Van Order (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Mills (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andy Hong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Philip Parker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.43
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew McInnis

60th • 7-5-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raj Giri (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carson Osborne (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Sitton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robbie Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Padlesky (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Micheal Thompson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.07
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.96

Norah Porter

61st • 7-5-0

83%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Barnett (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Cary Young (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs None (Unknown)

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.05
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.49
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.99

John Cooper

66th • 6-6-0

92%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs STEVEN HAWKER (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raj Giri (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Reese Toomre (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Emery Powell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Majin Bae (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (6.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Shimon Bandiel

70th • 6-6-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

6.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Sitton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ynez Nevarez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremiah Justice (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (6.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.28
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.78
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Horspool

dropped • 5-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

5.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Martin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edmondo Mazzulli (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs tyler kent (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Stephenson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Noah Rolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.29
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.51
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.68
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Travis Spicer

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jayson Galindo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Pack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jamen Vedova (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.05
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.51
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.43
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

sean Burke

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Billy Horn (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.51
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.66
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

ALEXANDER HAYDEN

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zyrone Powell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Gannon (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam Cameron (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robbie Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alex Groat

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Grayson Fountain (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Hammond (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Archer Taylor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.32
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Blake Meier

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs nathan ericksen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Barnett (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bradley Shockey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carter Phan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Cole Noblitt

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cary Young (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Anemone Chamlin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Evan Bridges

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Moes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keven Meyer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Groat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andy Hong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Garrett Kent (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jason Watkins

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Angus Mathieson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Dailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jason Wellendorf

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hudson Davis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jack Filiault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Woodland (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jason Woodland

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Betsy COCHRAN (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nathan ericksen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Filiault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sam Cameron (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joshua Sitton

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs RAHKZIN LEO EROLIN (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Drew Bosco (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Ambrose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.35
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kevin Canales

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philip Parker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam Cameron (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs RAHKZIN LEO EROLIN (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Cochran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Pacheco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.85

Lucas Voghell

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Montana Krasnov (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Stuhr (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Simon Wonser (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jayson Galindo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.40
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Mercy Bickell

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Stephenson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carson Osborne (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Michael Dailey

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daryoosh Entrikin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zak Cargin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Avery Smith (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Newton Cheng

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Angus Mathieson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Antonio Otero (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Betsy COCHRAN (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.40
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shawn Dhaliwal

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Cochran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Barnett (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Chilgren (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Garcia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Troy Benton

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mikko Pena (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manu Sankepally (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Beehler (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kyle James (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.39
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Tyson Au

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Powell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Garrett Kent (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Philip Parker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Lenaghan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Emily Mcmillan

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle James (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mychael Gochee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Nichols (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eric Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.78
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Ian Smith

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Xavier Hines (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andy Hong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Huynh (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Samuel Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.24
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

William Walle

dropped • 2-4-1

86%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jon Cardenas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Axel Sisbarro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Skylar Waidhofer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Martin Van Order (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Nash (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dexter Canright

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Porter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.83
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Joseph Elsey

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chase Reiser (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robbie Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Matthews (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremiah Justice (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Lucas Morrison

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edmondo Mazzulli (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Travis Spicer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.89
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matt Schubert

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Truong (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Pearse (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

aiden anable

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Markus Withakay (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Daniel Leblanc

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grant Strom (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sarath Vega (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jarrod Whitmore (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.89
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joshua Westbrook

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Eiford (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.33
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Omeid Vadipour

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Trevor Andrews (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Roark (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Woodland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

jordan johnson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brooks Mitchell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Axton Amentler (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Skylar Waidhofer

dropped • 0-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Billy Horn (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jayson Galindo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Moes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eli Fucile (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Walle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Axel Sisbarro

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dean Carr (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Walle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dion Orcutt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Cody Thomas

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Lawrence (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Hong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Merrick Kemp

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Groat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Ambrose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Phillip Sipe

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tegan Smerdon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.35
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Robert Mills

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs augustine shim (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jared Mergener (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Long (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Moes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Taylor Jennings

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Toby Roberts (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ernesto Rodriguez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Cochran (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Toby Roberts

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs George Norton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nik Dinnis

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Jacquart (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Pacheco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Chandler Bushnell

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Black (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

George Chew

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Lindstrom (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Cox (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Richard Kim

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darren Knopes (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Tristan Schmidt

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Milner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Stuhr (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Ted Vossen

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Lenaghan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.