Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Portland 2024 - The 50th! - Classic Constructed
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
16th • 9-3-0
58%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
5.1
Surp
4.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Arthur Mills (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Porter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Samuel Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Win vs Dane Wright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Norah Porter (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
29th • 8-4-0
33%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
5.2
Surp
3.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maxwell Perlin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matt Schubert (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Avery Smith (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs sean Burke (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
80:20
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 11: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
34th • 8-4-0
42%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
5.6
Surp
3.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Samuel Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Win vs Eric Towne (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Newton Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 5: Win vs Devon Porcher (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
Round 9: Win vs Reese Toomre (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Justin Salmon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Toby Roberts (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Whitwer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Round 6: Win vs Hudson Davis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 7: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cary Young (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 28:72
Round 2: Win vs jaystin teets (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Isaac Johnson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Eric Ting-jui Hsu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs William Walle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chase Osborne (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Markus Withakay (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Montana Krasnov (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jack Filiault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Leblanc (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-0-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
0.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jules Clark (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (1/1 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.