Calling: Portland 2024 - The 50th! - Classic Constructed - Viserai, Rune Blood (CC)

Viserai, Rune Blood

41 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Lorenz

13th • 9-3-0

75%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

5.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luke Gilmore (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.04
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.14
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.78
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.32
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Devon Porcher

18th • 9-3-0

67%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

6.1

Surp

5.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Max Parra (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Stevenson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Majin Bae (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tyson Au (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Cas Mulder (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.16
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.78
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.97
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.07
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andy Hong

20th • 9-3-0

58%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

6.3

Surp

5.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Black (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cody Thomas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ian Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Bridges (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Philip Parker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Garrett Kent (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jordan Long (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.97
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.88
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Noah Beygelman

22nd • 9-3-0

50%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.3

Surp

4.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Wellendorf (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Thomas Wilson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Barnett (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Voghell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Anthony Ambrose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Eli Teed (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.03
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.32
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.31
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.21
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Eric Keilback

24th • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Isaac Loren (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Cargin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikko Pena (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sam Cameron (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.77
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jakob Allan

41st • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

5.9

Surp

4.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Xavier Hines (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.04
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Garrett Kent

62nd • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Martin (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 90:10

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyson Au (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan Bridges (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andy Hong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Justin Lenaghan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Manu Sankepally (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.03
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.22
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.68
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Tommy Garnett

71st • 6-6-0

58%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

5.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Garcia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Bridges (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Garrett Kent (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.38
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Padlesky

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Matthews (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Scott Khuu (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Lenaghan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cole Noblitt (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.00
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Brodie Spurlock

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Scarbrough (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nate Stratton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.87
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Carson Osborne

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kolby Phelps (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Raj Giri

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Stone (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Hammond (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Ravi Sharma

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Robinson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Odin Boseth (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.24
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jacob Pacheco

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nik Dinnis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs CODY READY (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Jonah Overholt

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Logan McDougall (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Meyers (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cary Young (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.37
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Myles Rightmire

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Filiault (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Axton Amentler (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maxwell Taylor (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.18
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Tyler Kearney

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan McDougall (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakob Allan (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Raj Giri (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Towne (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.12
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Darren Knopes

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Pack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Trossman (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Garcia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Rogers (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Phillip Stephenson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.50
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jake O'Quinn

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bradley Shockey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dalton Cameron (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Whitwer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Cox (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Evan Rice (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle James (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Martin Van Order

dropped • 1-6-0

57%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Long (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs George Norton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Ng (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle James (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs William Walle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Mendelsohn

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nelson Lagat (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Norton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Westbrook (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Antonio Otero (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.97
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Colin Marshall

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Greg Urbina (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brian Baker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matt Schubert (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.97
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Dane Wright

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philip Parker (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs STEVEN HAWKER (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Robinson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Logan McDougall (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colt Hailey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.14
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.21
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.29
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Eric Dauernnheim

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Axel Sisbarro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Barnett (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Micheal Thompson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Woodland (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Noah Rolf

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Archie Zackery (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jayson Galindo (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Juan Flores (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Horspool (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.55
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Brandon Abarca

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Nennich (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Troy Benton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Joseph Gannon

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robbie Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brody Lewis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.07
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Ryan Cochran

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zyrone Powell (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.78
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Isaac Johnson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Nash (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob Linn (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kieth Seith (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John-David Cottrell

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Chambers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs nathan ericksen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Covington (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.76
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Sam Tsafalas

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Hawkinson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Silverman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonah Freund (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Archer Taylor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.34
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tommy Garnett (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Wellendorf (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Ynez Nevarez

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Milner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shimon Bandiel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.59
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andrew zickler

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Allan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs tyler kent (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Chilgren (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs james Hoenstine (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.19
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Matthew Legesse

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kristian Perez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Simon Wonser (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Montana Krasnov

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Voghell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Powell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daryoosh Entrikin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.53
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Nathan Fortin

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kieth Seith (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cameron (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Clayton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Towne (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tristin Sedlacek

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chase Osborne (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Trevor Andrews (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nate Stratton (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.73
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Keven Meyer

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mitchell Woodland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

jaystin teets

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Nash (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Freund (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Zoe Daniels

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.