Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Portland 2024

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chris Martin

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Garrett Kent (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Davis Purcell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Milner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Daniel Chang

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Becker (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Davis Purcell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Rawlings (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.90
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Timothy Pearse

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 14:86

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ayden Dukeshier (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Schubert (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Milner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Maxwell Perlin

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Farrell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 14:86

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs tyler kent (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.